The index rose 2.6%, versus a 1.2% gain for the Nasdaq-100, which rebounded from the sharpest tech sell-off since March 2020. Buy orders rose to 36% of the order book, driven mainly by Stripe. Shield AI raised $2B at a $28.8B valuation, Zipline raised $1.5B at $21.5B, and Mercor raised $750M at $20B.
Axevil Pre-IPO Index
Axevil Pre-IPO Index vs Nasdaq-100
+50% vs +19%Year-to-Date Performance, %
| Week | Pre-IPO Index, % | Nasdaq-100, % |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan 8 | 5.9 | 1.1 |
| Jan 15 | 11.9 | 0.9 |
| Jan 22 | 10 | 0.4 |
| Jan 29 | 12.8 | 3.1 |
| Feb 5 | 9 | -1.3 |
| Feb 12 | 10.9 | -0.6 |
| Feb 19 | 8 | -1.3 |
| Feb 26 | 11.9 | 0.3 |
| Mar 5 | 10 | -0.7 |
| Mar 12 | 10.9 | -0.9 |
| Mar 19 | 7 | -3.2 |
| Mar 26 | 10 | -4.2 |
| Apr 2 | 13.9 | -4.4 |
| Apr 9 | 20 | -0.6 |
| Apr 16 | 27.7 | 3.9 |
| Apr 23 | 25.1 | 7.1 |
| Apr 30 | 30.9 | 7.5 |
| May 7 | 36 | 14 |
| May 14 | 42.7 | 15.6 |
| May 21 | 39 | 16 |
| May 28 | 33.2 | 18.6 |
| Jun 4 | 34 | 21 |
| Jun 11 | 35.9 | 14 |
| Jun 18 | 35 | 16.2 |
| Jun 25 | 31.2 | 16 |
| Jul 2 | 35.8 | 18 |
| Jul 9 | 38.7 | 16 |
| Jul 16 | 39.8 | 16.5 |
| Jul 23 | 40.9 | 15.4 |
| Jul 30 | 43.7 | 8.2 |
| Aug 6 | 48 | 16.8 |
| Aug 13 | 46.7 | 17.4 |
| Aug 20 | 44.1 | 16.6 |
| Aug 27 | 43.7 | 15.8 |
| Sep 3 | 40.4 | 15.7 |
| Sep 10 | 39.5 | 16.4 |
| Sep 17 | 42 | 14.7 |
| Sep 24 | 44.3 | 20 |
| Oct 1 | 43.2 | 20.4 |
| Oct 8 | 45 | 23.2 |
| Oct 15 | 46.5 | 21.2 |
| Oct 22 | 47.8 | 18.2 |
| Oct 29 | 46 | 21 |
| Nov 5 | 45.7 | 17.4 |
| Nov 12 | 49.5 | 18.8 |
The week opened with the sharpest tech sell-off since March 2020: on November 5, the Nasdaq-100 fell 6.4% and the SOX semiconductor index dropped 12.3%. Investors were bracing for a slowdown in the AI infrastructure buildout: the 10-year Treasury yield approached 5%, markets fully priced in a Fed rate hike in December, and political pressure on data centers intensified after the midterm elections. The recovery gained pace on November 11 after CoreWeave raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $13–13.3B. By the end of the week, the Nasdaq-100 had erased its sell-off losses and was up 1.2%, though it remains 8% below its October high.
The private market didn’t follow the sell-off: the Axevil index rose 2.6% to 7,860 points, a new high for the year. The gain was supported by Anthropic’s roadshow, which values the company at up to $1.4T, and by markups in funding rounds: Zipline’s valuation has nearly tripled since January, while Mercor’s and Shield AI’s have doubled or more. Year to date, the index is up 50%, versus 19% for the Nasdaq-100.
Private Markets Map
Weekly Order Volume by Sector
Models and Labs
Anthropic
OpenAI- Prometheus
Reflection AI
Fintech and Crypto
Stripe
Ant Group
Kalshi
Monzo
Defense, Robotics and Neurotech
- Anduril
- Neuralink
Atoms
Physical Intelligence
AI Infrastructure
Databricks
Cognition
Temporal
Applied AI and Consumer
ByteDance
Rippling
Higgsfield
Models and labs account for 33% of the aggregate order book. Most of the volume is in Anthropic, OpenAI and Prometheus, Jeff Bezos’s AI company. Fintech and crypto account for 27.7% (Stripe, Alipay operator Ant Group, Kalshi), defense, robotics and neurotech for 22.1% (Anduril, Neuralink, Physical Intelligence), AI infrastructure for 9.3% (Databricks, Cognition, Temporal), and applied AI and consumer for 7.9% (ByteDance, Rippling, Higgsfield).
Data: Axevil.
Trading Activity
The aggregate order book totaled $16.4B over the week: $5.9B in demand (36%) and $10.5B in supply. Demand’s share rose from 31% a week earlier, driven mainly by Stripe.
Demand: Buy Order Volume
| Name | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Stripe | $2.4B | |
| Anthropic | $1.1B | |
| Ant Group | $400M | |
| Databricks | $270M | |
| Anduril | $220M | |
| Neuralink | $146M | |
| Ramp | $142M | |
| Cognition | $118M | |
| Temporal | $100M | |
| ClickHouse | $95M |
StripeAnthropicAnt GroupDatabricksAndurilNeuralink
RampCognitionTemporal
ClickHouseSupply: Sell Order Volume
| Name | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | $2.1B | |
| Anduril | $1.8B | |
| OpenAI | $1.3B | |
| Prometheus | $526M | |
| Stripe | $415M | |
| Kalshi | $414M | |
| ByteDance | $400M | |
| Neuralink | $295M | |
| Atoms | $180M | |
| Rippling | $164M |
AnthropicAndurilOpenAIPrometheusStripeKalshiByteDanceNeuralinkAtomsRipplingSupply was heaviest in Anthropic ($2.1B), Anduril ($1.8B), OpenAI ($1.3B) and Prometheus ($526M). Demand was led by Stripe ($2.4B), Anthropic ($1.1B), Ant Group ($400M) and Databricks ($270M).
Data: Axevil.
Key Private Company News
Anthropic launched its IPO roadshow, setting a price range of $70–78 per share.
The company is offering 825 million shares to raise up to $64B and is selling another $26B of stock in a private placement to seven partners, including Google, Nvidia and Microsoft. The valuation could reach $1.4T, and the order book is already covered across the price range, CNBC reported. Pricing is expected on November 18, with trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT set to begin November 19.
OpenAI topped $10B in quarterly revenue for the first time.
Third-quarter revenue rose almost 50% from the second quarter, the adjusted operating margin improved from −150% to −109%, and ARR reached about $50B, Bloomberg reported. President Greg Brockman said OpenAI could be ready for an IPO in 2027.
Zipline raised $1.5B at a $21.5B valuation.
The drone delivery company’s valuation has nearly tripled since January, when it was valued at $7.6B. Paradigm, WCM and Layer Global led the round. Walmart is expanding the partnership, adding 300 drone delivery sites across the U.S. to the 21 already in operation.
Mercor raised $750M at a $20B valuation.
Its valuation has doubled since October 2025. The company supplies leading AI labs with experts who train and evaluate AI models; its ARR topped $2B in June. The round includes a tender offer for employees, with Nvidia, Benchmark and General Catalyst participating.
Sequoia Capital raised $10B for new funds.
The firm is betting on fewer, high-conviction deals and is merging its early- and late-stage teams to back companies from first check to IPO. European AI deals are now run by the firm’s U.S. team.
Anthropic released Fable 5.2 and Mythos 5.2.
Fable 5.2 outscored Fable 5.1 by more than 10% on most of the 14 benchmarks tested and by more than 13% in coding, and is priced 20% below previous-generation models.
Thinking Machines Lab
The lab founded by former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, released Inkling 2 Small, a 594-billion-parameter language model. The company is raising $5B at a $40B valuation, with Accel leading, Business Insider reported.
Applied Intuition
A developer of software for autonomous vehicles and defense, is in talks to raise at least $1.5B at a $30B pre-money valuation, up from $15B in June 2025, according to Bloomberg.
Polymarket
A prediction market platform, has grown its ARR to more than $1.8B from $1B in June and is raising about $1B at a $21B valuation.
This Week’s New Rounds
Twenty-one rounds of $100M or more closed over the week, totaling $9.8B. The largest was Shield AI’s $2B. Shield AI also had the highest valuation, at $28.8B.
Top 10 by Valuation
Shield AI
2.3x since Mar
Zipline
2.8x since Jan
Mercor
2x since Oct ’25
Fractile
6.4x since May
CesiumAstro
Nominal
3x since Mar
Path Robotics
Imprint
1.6x prior round
Onodrim Industries
Rox
Round sources: Shield AI, Zipline, Mercor, Fractile, CesiumAstro, Nominal, Path Robotics, Imprint, Onodrim Industries, Rox.
Exits and Liquidity
The Week’s Largest Deals
Echodyne
Skydio
Counsel Health
Tigris Data
Sources are linked in company names.
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