The index slipped 0.2%, while the Nasdaq-100 fell 3%. Sell orders were concentrated in Anthropic, Anduril and OpenAI. Fal raised $1.3B at a $16B valuation, Kalshi raised $1B at $40B, and Salesforce is buying Cresta for $2.7B.
Axevil Pre-IPO Index
Axevil Pre-IPO Index vs Nasdaq-100
+46% vs +17%Year-to-Date Performance, %
| Week | Pre-IPO Index, % | Nasdaq-100, % |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan 8 | 5.9 | 1.1 |
| Jan 15 | 11.9 | 0.9 |
| Jan 22 | 10 | 0.4 |
| Jan 29 | 12.8 | 3.1 |
| Feb 5 | 9 | -1.3 |
| Feb 12 | 10.9 | -0.6 |
| Feb 19 | 8 | -1.3 |
| Feb 26 | 11.9 | 0.3 |
| Mar 5 | 10 | -0.7 |
| Mar 12 | 10.9 | -0.9 |
| Mar 19 | 7 | -3.2 |
| Mar 26 | 10 | -4.2 |
| Apr 2 | 13.9 | -4.4 |
| Apr 9 | 20 | -0.6 |
| Apr 16 | 27.7 | 3.9 |
| Apr 23 | 25.1 | 7.1 |
| Apr 30 | 30.9 | 7.5 |
| May 7 | 36 | 14 |
| May 14 | 42.7 | 15.6 |
| May 21 | 39 | 16 |
| May 28 | 33.2 | 18.6 |
| Jun 4 | 34 | 21 |
| Jun 11 | 35.9 | 14 |
| Jun 18 | 35 | 16.2 |
| Jun 25 | 31.2 | 16 |
| Jul 2 | 35.8 | 18 |
| Jul 9 | 38.7 | 16 |
| Jul 16 | 39.8 | 16.5 |
| Jul 23 | 40.9 | 15.4 |
| Jul 30 | 43.7 | 8.2 |
| Aug 6 | 48 | 16.8 |
| Aug 13 | 46.7 | 17.4 |
| Aug 20 | 44.1 | 16.6 |
| Aug 27 | 43.7 | 15.8 |
| Sep 3 | 40.4 | 15.7 |
| Sep 10 | 39.5 | 16.4 |
| Sep 17 | 42 | 14.7 |
| Sep 24 | 44.3 | 20 |
| Oct 1 | 43.2 | 20.4 |
| Oct 8 | 45 | 23.2 |
| Oct 15 | 46.5 | 21.2 |
| Oct 22 | 47.8 | 18.2 |
| Oct 29 | 46 | 21 |
| Nov 5 | 45.7 | 17.4 |
The private market proved more resilient than the public one: the index slipped 0.2% to 7,661 points. The Nasdaq-100 fell 3% as large investors trimmed tech positions amid tensions over Iran and ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. Democrats won control of both houses of Congress, and their platform includes restrictions on data centers. Year to date, the index is up 46%, versus 17% for the Nasdaq-100.
Private Markets Map
Weekly Order Volume by Sector
Models and Labs
Anthropic
OpenAI
Mistral AI
Reflection AI
Defense, Robotics and Neurotech
Anduril
Neuralink
Saronic
Physical Intelligence
Fintech and Crypto
Stripe
Kalshi
Ramp
Revolut
Applied AI and Consumer
ByteDance
Canva
Higgsfield
AI Infrastructure
Databricks
Cognition
Fireworks AI
Models and labs account for 46.5% of the aggregate order book. Most of the volume is in Anthropic, OpenAI and Mistral AI. Defense, robotics and neurotech account for 20% (Anduril, Neuralink, Saronic), fintech and crypto for 19.1% (Stripe, Kalshi, Ramp), applied AI and consumer for 8% (ByteDance, Canva, Higgsfield), and AI infrastructure for 6.4% (Databricks, Cognition, Fireworks AI).
Data: Axevil.
Trading Activity
The aggregate order book totaled $17.5B over the week: $5.5B in demand (31%) and $12B in supply.
Demand: Buy Order Volume
| Name | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | $2.1B | |
| Stripe | $1.8B | |
| Databricks | $205M | |
| Ramp | $152M | |
| Saronic | $101M | |
| ElevenLabs | $100M | |
| Cognition | $99M | |
| OpenAI | $85M | |
| Revolut | $82M | |
| Neuralink | $81M |
AnthropicStripeDatabricksRampSaronic
ElevenLabsCognitionOpenAIRevolutNeuralinkSupply: Sell Order Volume
| Name | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | $3.9B | |
| Anduril | $2.2B | |
| OpenAI | $1.6B | |
| Stripe | $635M | |
| ByteDance | $450M | |
| Kalshi | $426M | |
| Neuralink | $314M | |
| Mistral AI | $220M | |
| Canva | $204M | |
| Higgsfield | $165M |
AnthropicAndurilOpenAIStripeByteDanceKalshiNeuralinkMistral AICanvaHiggsfieldSupply was heaviest in Anthropic ($3.9B), Anduril ($2.2B), OpenAI ($1.6B) and Stripe ($635M). Demand was led by Anthropic ($2.1B), Stripe ($1.8B), Databricks ($205M) and Ramp ($152M).
Anthropic is the largest name on both sides ahead of its IPO.
Data: Axevil.
Key Private Company News
Anthropic disclosed its third-quarter results ahead of its IPO.
Quarterly revenue was $17B, up 47% from the second quarter and 12 times the year-earlier figure. Adjusted operating income was $2.5B, while the operating loss came to $567M, driven mainly by $5B spent on compute under short-term contracts and about $2B for a donation-matching program. The roadshow could start on November 9.
Fal raised $1.3B at a $16B valuation.
The platform, which companies use to run image, video and audio generation models, has doubled its valuation since April, when it was valued at $8B. Bessemer led the Series F, with Nvidia and T. Rowe Price participating. ARR has passed $800M.
Mistral AI released Mistral Large 4 as an open model.
The 1-trillion-parameter language model was trained on 3,800 GPUs in the company’s own data centers in Europe. Its Terminal-Bench 4.0 score rose from 28% to 41%, on par with GLM-5.3.
Waymo picked the Toyota bZ4X as its next robotaxi.
Toyota will build vehicles with Waymo’s autonomous driving system at its Takaoka plant. Testing in Japan will begin in 2027, followed by expansion into right-hand-drive markets, including the U.K.
CrowdStrike is buying two AI security startups.
Fiddler AI ($400M) makes software for monitoring AI agents inside companies, and Dreadnode ($95M) finds vulnerabilities in AI models and agents before they launch. CrowdStrike is building oversight and testing of AI agents into its Falcon platform as corporations step up agent adoption.
OpenAI cut its funding round target from $30B to $20B.
It has raised $11B so far and expects the rest to come from family offices and private investors, the WSJ reported. OpenAI also signed a multiyear deal in the UAE with Abu Dhabi’s national oil company ADNOC and AI holding company G42.
Moonshot AI
Released Kimi K3.1 Pro, its flagship 2.8-trillion-parameter language model, as an open model.
Isomorphic Labs
An AI drug discovery company owned by Google parent Alphabet, is in talks to raise $5B at a $50B valuation, according to Bloomberg.
Baseten
A platform for running AI models, is in talks to raise $2B in two tranches at valuations of $26B and $30B, according to Bloomberg. It was last valued at $13B.
This Week’s New Rounds
Twenty-one rounds of $100M or more closed over the week, totaling $5.6B excluding Cohere, whose first-close amount was not disclosed. The largest was Fal’s $1.3B. Kalshi had the highest valuation, at $40B.
Top 10 by Valuation
Kalshi
Cohere
Fal
Applied Compute
Serval
Northwood Space
Xinlian Power
Wabi
EOS-X Space
Traversal
Round sources: Cohere, Fal, Kalshi, Northwood Space, Applied Compute, Xinlian Power, Serval, EOS-X Space, Traversal, Wabi.
Exits and Liquidity
The Week’s Largest Deals
Revolut
Cresta
Humain
Fiddler AI
Sources are linked in company names.
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